Evidence tiers
A controlled vocabulary for every claim, so readers can tell an established finding from a working model or an idea.
The four tiers
| Tier | Definition | Informative grade |
|---|---|---|
| Established | Findings repeated across studies in the cited literature | High to moderate certainty |
| Model | An accepted framework, applied by ATS-1 as a model | Moderate to low certainty |
| Hypothesis | Testable, not yet tested for this use | Low to very low certainty |
| Inspiration | Guides thinking; never offered as evidence; no output depends on it | Not graded |
The current claims register
| Claim | Tier |
|---|---|
| Energy is never created or destroyed; food energy goes to work, storage or heat | Established |
| Light is the main signal keeping the 24-hour clock in step | Established |
| The clock influences mood | Model |
| Allostasis: the body anticipates demand and pays a cost | Model |
| Early-warning signals before changes in depression (group level) | Model |
| Cross-plane early-warning signals | Hypothesis |
| Exercise reduces depressive symptoms (low-to-moderate certainty) | Established |
| Mitochondria and psychological stress interact (mostly animal evidence) | Model |
| Free-energy principle (a framework, not one quantity) | Model |
| Mind as a quantum process | Inspiration (not used in any measure) |
Sources for each claim are listed in the specification.
How a claim moves
A claim moves up a tier only when the evidence changes, and every change is versioned. ANTRL's first preregistered claim is that cross-plane early-warning signals predict a self-reported wellbeing shift better than either plane alone; it carries the Hypothesis tier until tested. See governance.
Questions
Why include Inspiration at all?
Because ideas shape research. Labeling them Inspiration makes clear they are not evidence and that no output depends on them.
Keep reading
ConstructsHow ATS-1 restates Jung: complex, will, individuation and coherence as testable hypotheses; archetype and shadow stay interpretive only.Conformance levelsThe three ATS-1 conformance levels (data, model, endpoint-checked), the claim template, closed and open protocols, and why "validated" is banned.State-Change SignalThe ATS-1 State-Change Signal: rising autocorrelation and variance tested against surrogate data, reported as a graded statement.GlossaryPlain definitions of the terms behind ATS-1, from HRV, lnRMSSD and baselines to early-warning signals, evidence tiers and conformance levels.
Take the next step.
The ATS-1 evidence tiers (Established, Model, Hypothesis, Inspiration), their definitions, and the current register of claims.