Coherence and Metabolic Balance
Two descriptive indices. Neither is a target, and "more" is not presented as "better".
Coherence: the procedure
- Person-mean-center each variable.
- Align planes on a daily grid: night n sleep and HRV to day n+1 mean affect.
- Estimate lag-0 and lag-1 standardized cross-coefficients in a multilevel VAR or dynamic structural equation model with random slopes.
- Report each coefficient with its 95% credible or confidence interval. Pairwise lagged correlations are allowed only after prewhitening.
Minimum data: at least 60 aligned days.
Why "more coherent" is not "better"
Coherence is descriptive coupling strength. Tighter coupling between subsystems has been linked to lower resilience in complex-systems research, so ATS-1 never presents higher coherence as an improvement.
Metabolic Balance
MB = slope of smoothed body mass (kg per week) over the window
- The window is at least 28 days.
- Expenditure is shown with its ±20% band, and logged food is treated as a lower bound.
- A daily calorie balance is not computed, because wearable expenditure varies widely by device and logged food is usually under-reported.
- Metabolic Balance is descriptive and must not be framed as a weight-loss or clinical target.
Questions
Why not show calories in and out?
Because both sides are too uncertain day to day. A body-mass trend over weeks is more honest.
Keep reading
The five indicesThe five ATS-1 indices: State Index, Resilience, State-Change Signal, Coherence and Metabolic Balance, what each describes and how each is reported.State IndexThe ATS-1 State Index: robust z-scores of HRV, sleep and affect against a 28-day personal baseline, using the median and MAD.Evidence tiersThe ATS-1 evidence tiers (Established, Model, Hypothesis, Inspiration), their definitions, and the current register of claims.GlossaryPlain definitions of the terms behind ATS-1, from HRV, lnRMSSD and baselines to early-warning signals, evidence tiers and conformance levels.
Take the next step.
Two descriptive ATS-1 indices: Coherence, the coupling between planes from a multilevel VAR, and Metabolic Balance, the body-mass trend.